David Moenning

There Are Risks To Be Considered

As a reminder, we have made a change to the presentation of our market models and my oftentimes meandering morning market missives. The goal is to create a series of more concise, bite-sized reports, which will be published on a daily basis. Below is the weekly publishing schedule:

Are Valuations A Problem Here (Or Not)?

Executive Summary: Monetary conditions, which includes Fed policy, remain exceptionally/historically favorable. Both economic data and corporate earnings have been coming in better than expected. Inflation, while showing some signs of life recently, isn't likely t…
Traders Still Buying The Dips image

Traders Still Buying The Dips

Executive Summary: Both the Early Warning board and my favorite stochastic indicators suggest that stocks are overbought. As such, one can argue that "the table is set" for some downside action. However, I will opine that we've got a "good overbought" condition on…

Lots of Good Things Happening

The question from last week's technical review was whether or not the stock market was "breaking out" to the upside. I noted that while the S&P 500 did indeed appear to be making a run for the border, there was little in the way of confirmation from the other major indices and that ev…
Additional Improvement in Primary Cycle Models image

Additional Improvement in Primary Cycle Models

Good morning. As a reminder, we have made a change to the presentation of our market models and my oftentimes meandering morning market missives. The goal is to create a series of more concise, bite-sized reports, which will be published on a daily basis. Below is the weekly publishing sc…

Fundamentals Remain Supportive

I like to close out each week by checking in on the market's fundamental backdrop. I believe this should include the areas of interest rates, the economy, corporate earnings, inflation, and stock market valuations. In short, these areas tend to be the macro drivers of many primary market …

Good News Lends Bulls A Hand

To say that we are experiencing unprecedented times on both Main and Wall Streets is likely the understatement of the century. Never before has the U.S. economy been intentionally shut down and then, for better or worse, quickly reopened a couple months later. Never before has the stock m…

Avoiding The Urge To Trade Here

I feel strongly that one of the keys to longevity in the business of investment management is having a repeatable process. I start each week with a review of the state of the big-picture environment. I then review the current trend and the degree of momentum behind the move. Next, I look …

The Question of the Day

The question of the day from a technical perspective is if the stock market is "breaking out" to the upside. If the answer is yes, then we need to assume that the next leg of the current bull market is about to get underway and all dips should be bought. Good times! However, if we…

Staying Seated On The Bull Train

Good morning. To review, we have made a change to the presentation of our market models and my oftentimes meandering morning market missives. The goal is to create a series of more concise, bite-sized reports, which will be published on a daily basis. Below is the weekly publishing schedu…