David Moenning

Place Your Bets

The question of the day - at least in the popular financial press - appears to be, why are stocks rallying with the economy in free fall? Readers of my oftentimes meandering market missive likely already know the answer here. As we've discussed a time or twenty, the stock market is a disc…

Assuming Away The Can And...

There is an old joke which pokes fun at economists that I think applies to the current state of the stock market. It goes something like this... An economist, a chemist, and a physicist are stranded on an island with nothing to eat but a can of beans. The chemist s…

The Battle Is On

Stocks technically finished lower last week (the S&P 500 fell -1.3%), but in reality, the market has been moving sideways for the past couple weeks or so. Some will call it a consolidation of the big bounce off the bottom. Others say the market is in search of an equilibrium point. An…
Market Logic Can Be Confusing image

Market Logic Can Be Confusing

Investors received a steady flow of really rotten news on many fronts last week. China's economy shrank by -6.8%. JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon said we need to expect a "severe recession" as well as "meaningfully bad" credit card defaults. The IMF changed its 2020 global growth forecast …

What Are We Lookin' At?

The S&P 500 enjoyed its biggest bounce in 46 years last week. Which followed the biggest/fastest drop from an all-time high since, well, ever. So, naturally, the question now becomes, where do we go from here? Markets cheered the Fed's sledgehammer response this past week. To …
There Is Good News If You Look Hard Enough image

There Is Good News If You Look Hard Enough

The headlines have been awful. The human toll from the virus continues to mount. The economic impact is jaw dropping. And we're told things are going to get worse this week. Although stocks are bouncing in the early going Monday on the hope that the worst will soon be behind us, i…

And We're Back...

I received a text last night asking a pretty good question; one that I thought others might be wondering about as well. The text read, "Dave, we knew the news was going to be bad, why does the market suddenly care?" From my perch, the answer is based on the concept of "expectation…

Putting The Rally In Perspective

From my seat, it appears that stocks are experiencing a "sigh of relief" rally (aka a dead cat bounce) here. As we've discussed, these rallies tend to be impressive (hence the headlines for last week's big gains) and make everybody "feel better" about the crisis at hand. The bottom line i…

More Questions Than Answers

We've talked a lot lately about what I call "The Crash Playbook." In short, this is a guide developed since the mid-1980's on how market crashes/crises tend to play out. The premise for the playbook is, as the saying goes, "history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes." The …

The Message From The Market Action

Market analysts love to talk about "the action" that occurs in the markets. Many, including yours truly, believe that the manner in which the market moves - especially after important news - can provide a "message" about the current environment. To be clear, the action definitely does NOT…