David Moenning

Today, It's All About The Inflation Data

Well, if you were wondering if inflation and, in turn, interest rates were important to the stock market, this morning's initial market reaction to the CPI data cleared things up. The Labor Department reported at 8:30 am eastern that the Consumer Price Index (aka CPI) rose by 0.5%…

What's Next? History Suggests...

One of my favorite jokes about Wall Street goes something like this: The first time something happens on Wall Street, it's called it a trend. If it happens twice in a row, it's a tradition. And if it happens three times in a row, well, it's darned near a commandment! I guess it is…

The Biggest Change Seen Last Week Was...

I like to start each week by reviewing (a) my key market indicators and (b) the macro picture of the current market environment. As such, my Monday morning market missive is intended to cover both. Let's start by taking a quick survey of the damage the stock market's decline has i…

Is This Really About Rates?

I usually don't write on Friday mornings. However, with the Dow experiencing its second quadruple-digit dance to the downside of the week yesterday, I figured it was probably time to make an exception. The goal of this morning's hopefully not-so meandering market missive is to try…

Where is the Equilibrium Point?

As I wrote on Tuesday, the question of the day (for me at least) remains the same on this fine Thursday morning. What is real and what is artificial? Sure, stocks bounced right on cue after getting sucker punched by what I believe was a 12-standard deviation move in the volatility…

The Crash Playbook

By now, everyone knows that after a prolonged period of calm, volatility has returned to the stock market - in a big way. Just about everybody in the game, including yours truly, predicted this would happen. There was little doubt that the period of extremely low volatility would, at some…

What is Real and What is Artificial?

During times of market stress, one of the biggest challenges is trying to determine what is real and what is artificial. When markets spike - in either direction - there is usually some sort of a news event or happening that triggers the move. BREXIT was a prime example of this. M…

Have The Fundamentals Changed?

Although there are lots of folks wringing their hands over last week's dance to the downside in both stock and bond prices, the key question from a macro standpoint is, has anything changed? Cutting to the chase, I'm going to say, maybe. Before I get into the details, let'…

Welcome to Wait-and-See Mode

After Tuesday's dance to the downside, it is easy to fall into a trap by thinking that the next trading day will become a "tell" for what will happen next. Although "confirmation" of a move is indeed a thing in technical analysis, it is important to remember that confirmation can take day…

Five Reasons And, What's Next?

I've long believed that when stocks make a large move in either direction, there is usually a reason. A trigger. Or a driver to the action. And identifying the reasons behind the move has long been an obsession of mine. In other words, if the market makes a big move, I've got to know why.…