David Moenning
Where is the Equilibrium Point?
As I wrote on Tuesday, the question of the day (for me at least) remains the same on this fine Thursday morning. What is real and what is artificial?
Sure, stocks bounced right on cue after getting sucker punched by what I believe was a 12-standard deviation move in the volatility…
The Crash Playbook
By now, everyone knows that after a prolonged period of calm, volatility has returned to the stock market - in a big way. Just about everybody in the game, including yours truly, predicted this would happen. There was little doubt that the period of extremely low volatility would, at some…
What is Real and What is Artificial?
During times of market stress, one of the biggest challenges is trying to determine what is real and what is artificial.
When markets spike - in either direction - there is usually some sort of a news event or happening that triggers the move. BREXIT was a prime example of this. M…
Have The Fundamentals Changed?
Although there are lots of folks wringing their hands over last week's dance to the downside in both stock and bond prices, the key question from a macro standpoint is, has anything changed?
Cutting to the chase, I'm going to say, maybe.
Before I get into the details, let'…
Welcome to Wait-and-See Mode
After Tuesday's dance to the downside, it is easy to fall into a trap by thinking that the next trading day will become a "tell" for what will happen next. Although "confirmation" of a move is indeed a thing in technical analysis, it is important to remember that confirmation can take day…
Five Reasons And, What's Next?
I've long believed that when stocks make a large move in either direction, there is usually a reason. A trigger. Or a driver to the action. And identifying the reasons behind the move has long been an obsession of mine. In other words, if the market makes a big move, I've got to know why.…
Is It Time?
Don't you just love this game? Just about the time that everyone on the planet realizes that stocks are on a roll and will likely continue movin' on up because of, well, you know the drill... something usually comes crawling out of the woodwork to put the brakes on the move. At least for …
How Much Is Enough?
One of the primary objectives of my oftentimes meandering morning market missive is to stay on top of what is driving the market action. So, one of my New Year's resolutions is to commit at least one post a week to either the short-, intermediate-, or long-term drivers. So, this morning, …
An Early Warning Flag
Coming into Monday morning, the S&P 500 was enjoying the best start to a calendar year since... wait for it... 1987. As of Monday's close, the S&P has gained... wait for it... 6% year-to-date. And according to Bespoke Investment Group, the S&P 500 is within... wait for it... 2…