Daily State of the Markets
Bulls Deserve Benefit of Doubt
Executive Summary:
There are times when it can be difficult to make sense of the contrasting messages from market models and the price action playing out on your screens. For me, it is to understand/remember the time frame you are looking at. Obviously, if you are…
Thoughts On The Correction, Fundamentals, and Valuations
Before we get to our weekly review of market fundamentals, let's look at the state of the current pullback happening in the stock market.
After a 3-day pummeling of the market leaders that appeared to be triggered by the combination of extreme overbought conditions, excessive spec…
My Base Case
Executive Summary:
One week ago, investors fretted about keeping up as the stock market winners continued to march higher on a daily basis. But as the saying goes, trees don't grow to the sky and our Early Warning board gave us ample time to recognize that the "ta…
Are The Bears Back In The Game?
Executive Summary:
After the rather ridiculous run higher in July and August, during which time we saw some truly ridiculous moves in names like Tesla (TSLA) and AAPL on the back of stock split announcements (which, of course, mean N-O-T-H-I-N-G), the bears finall…
Corrective Action Isn't Surprising
Executive Summary:
Last week, I questioned if the bull case had become a little "too easy" and, in turn, a bit too popular. The implication was that the recent joyride to the upside had become more than a little overdone. Cue some options unwinding, some profit-ta…
You Knew It Was Coming, Right?
Before we get to the state of the market fundamentals, I figure it is probably a good idea to address the current violent selloff happening in the stock market.
First, the fact that the market suddenly fell, without notice, and on no news, should not come as ANY surprise to reader…
Of #FOMO and #OnHold
Executive Summary:
Stocks remain overbought, sentiment remains at extreme levels, and IMO, complacency has set in. And yet, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices continue to march higher on a daily basis. As such, the bears are sure to be asking, how can this be? Fro…
The Trend Is Your Friend, If...
Executive Summary:
After the best return for the month of August since 1984 (+7.0% for S&P 500 index and +7.19% with dividends reinvested) it appears that the trend is indeed an investors best friend here. And while it's been a little bumpy, the venerable blue…
Is The Bull Argument Too Easy These Days?
As a reminder, the market's primary cycles generally do not change often. However, I still like to start each week with a clear understanding of what type of market we are dealing with. For me, a quick glance at the color of the Primary Cycle board and the weekly/monthly S&P graphs be…