Daily State of the Markets

The Road Is Gonna Be Bumpy

Good Morning. If it's Thursday, it's time to review my thoughts on the drivers of the current market action. Our Review Process: Once we have identified the state of the big-picture environment (Market Model Mondays), the current trend and the degree of momentum b…

Early Warning Wednesday for 7.15.20: It's Complicated

Good Morning. Since it's Wednesday, it's time to review our Early Warning indicator boards. The Process: Once we have identified the state of the big-picture environment, the current trend, and the degree of momentum behind the move, we then look at the potential …

Technical Tuesday: Stuck In The Middle With You

Welcome to the inaugural edition of "Technical Tuesdays." If it's Tuesday, it's time to focus on the trend and momentum of the market. We start each week with a review of the primary market cycles through the lens of our big-picture primary cycle models. Next, I like to review the…

Primary Cycle Update: It's a Bull Market

Good Monday morning. After careful consideration, I have decided to make a change to the presentation of our market models and my oftentimes meandering morning market missives. It has been brought to my attention that many websites now publish the number of minutes required to rea…
Four Key Points For This Market image

Four Key Points For This Market

I hope you and yours had a wonderful Fourth. It was a busy holiday weekend here in Colorado. My wife and I hit the golf course, the hiking trails, the bike path, and the doggie trail, finished the season's planting, and enjoyed a couple social distanced happy hours with friends. Frankly, …

Some Surprisingly Bad Data To Contend With

Last week, we highlighted what we deemed to be Some Surprisingly Good Data. We cited the surge in Empire State General Business Conditions Index, the readings from US Home Purchases…

Some Surprisingly Good Data

I think we can all agree that the key driver to the stock market game these days is the expectation/hope for the economy to recover. To be sure, this is no ordinary recovery. Because this is definitely not your ordinary, garden variety recession. No, never before in history has th…

Is There Any Upside From Here?

With the S&P 500 closing Friday up 35.9% from the March 23 low, the key questions in my mind are simple. First, how high is too high? And is there any upside from here? The reason I ask these question is because it appears there is a ginormous chasm between the stock market's …

Five Lessons For Understanding This Market

I ended last week's missive with the words, "So, from my seat, some caution remains warranted." Silly me. What was I thinking? To be honest, I was thinking that the market's recent joyride to the upside, which, as of Friday, has produced gains of 42.8% from the low on the S&P …

Turning The Corner

It appears the general theme of the market these days is we have turned the corner in terms of the virus and the self-inflicted damage done to the economy. This is clearly good news. And to be sure, a collective sigh of relief is warranted. In reviewing the slew of economic data t…