Daily State of the Markets
About That 'Message' From The Bond Market
After five days of wild, news-driven swings in the stock market, where the action was dominated by escalating trade tensions, the threat of a currency war, and the possibility that the next U.S.-China meeting scheduled for September may not happen, investors can't be blamed for starting t…
Indicators Suggest Weakness Should Be Bought
It's been a hectic travel weekend and I'm still on the road. And with all the news flying around at the moment, I feel it is important to spend the appropriate amount of time analyzing the situation and the market action. As such, I'm going to let the indicators do the talking this mornin…
How Do We Model For This?
As a risk manager, I try to find and/or create models for as many different market inputs as possible. For example, we have models for corporate earnings, monetary conditions, interest rates, valuations, the U.S. economy, commodities, the global economy, inflation, volatility, overbought/…
Is There Any Upside From Here?
Let's review. The S&P 500 is just 5 days removed from its most recent all-time high. Central bankers around the globe are either cutting rates or getting ready to cut rates. Economic growth is slowing. Earnings in the U.S. continue to beat estimates (although the bar for the current s…
A Singular Mission
Good Monday morning and welcome back to the land of blinking screens. While there are many topics to discuss on this fine summer day (earnings, inflation, trade, economic data, etc.) I think we need to recognize that the most important topic and the topic that is driving the action in bot…
What Should We Expect in the 2nd Half of 2019?
To be sure, Friday's jobs report created some uncertainty in terms of traders' Fed-expectations. While I can argue that the expectations regarding the degree and speed of anticipated rate cuts had gotten a little out of hand, the question of the day now becomes, what should we expect? As …
Looking For A Way To Identify The Next Big Bear?
Let's review. The Fed is no longer the enemy. There is, at the very least, a cease-fire in the trade war between China and the good 'ol USofA. Rates are low. Inflation is nowhere to be found. Earnings will likely set a record this year. The U.S. economy continues to chug along. And if one…
Lots of Inputs But Only One Real Focal Point
So many inputs, so little time for a Monday morning market missive. For example, there is a new record for the S&P 500. A new record for the amount of global debt sporting negative yields (now $13 trillion according to Barron's). A new approach for many of the world's central bankers.…
Markets Never Sleep But Models Still Favor The Bulls
It was a busy weekend, to say the least. Two birthday parties. Our youngest daughter's master's graduation at DU. The ensuing after-party until all hours. A celebration for our eldest daughter's PhD. Some precious babysitting time with our grandson. Four trips to the airport. And of cours…