Daily State of the Markets

What We Learned

As usual, there was a fair amount of volatility following the Fed announcement yesterday. As usual, stocks spiked in both directions as the algos plowed through the statement and reacted to everything they found. And as usual, it took a few minutes for the humans to digest what Mr. Powell…

And Now We Wait...

And now we wait. For this afternoon's Fed meeting, that is. Make no mistake about it; while there is plenty of other "stuff" for traders to occupy their time with today, what Jay Powell and friends have to say about the economy, inflation, rates, "the runoff," and the now famous "dots" wi…

Here We Go Again

Well, here we go again. Just when I had described the recent five-day pullback as "orderly" all heck breaks loose and the stock market makes headlines again for producing big, red numbers. As long-time readers know, I tend to obsess over the drivers of the stock market action. I f…

Both Teams Appear To Have An Argument

What a difference a week makes in this game, right? At this time last week, we were celebrating the "Goldilocks" economic data and the six-day run higher in stocks that pushed the NASDAQ Composite to a fresh all-time high. However, five days and four big, red candlesticks later, the enthu…

Goldilocks Is Alive And Well

I am running to the airport in a few minutes, so I'll keep this brief and to the point. While the narrative in the stock market can change in the blink of an eye, it appears that Friday's Jobs report put the bulls back in control of the game. The key word being used to describe th…

The Most Interesting (Chart) In The World

As I may have mentioned a time or three, I don't usually write on Friday mornings. After penning an almost daily missive on the state of the market since the late 1990's, I figure I can a day off every now and again. However, in running through my charts, I was struck by the curre…

Trade War Lite?

If you find yourself wondering why Ms. Market is fluctuating back and forth lately, you haven't been paying attention. Cutting to the chase, this market is all about the tariffs and the potential for a global trade war. There are arguments on both sides here (hence the back and fo…

The Lines In The Sand Are Clear

On Monday morning, I opined that the so-called "tariff tantrum" (I.E. last week's 3.5-day, 5% decline in response to the threat of tariffs on steel and aluminum) had ushered in the third chapter in the "crash playbook" - aka the "retest phase." Unlike the first two phases - the "e…

Maybe He Will. Maybe He Won't. And That's The Point.

Maybe he will, maybe he won't. Impose those nasty tariffs on steel and aluminum, that is. And that's the point as the stock market appears to be figuring out that with this President, a deal isn't a deal until the deal is actually done. That's right. Just about the time traders we…

"Tariff Tantrum" Triggers The Retest Phase

The "Tariff Tantrum," as it is being called, is clearly the current focal point of the market. With the glaring exception of the White House, most everyone agrees that embarking on a trade war doesn't do anybody much good. And whether or not the President actually makes good on the threat…