Daily State of the Markets
Seven Macro Concerns About Bonds
While traders continue to focus on the near-term issues including the OPEC meeting, the vote in Italy, and all things Donald Trump, my team is looking ahead to next year from a macro perspective. And the key questions in our minds isn't whether the new administration is going to cut taxes…
Has The "Great Rotation" Finally Begun?
As long-time readers know, I tend to have a glass-is-at-least-half-full view of the markets and the U.S. economy. For example, during the recent sloppy period in stocks, which began in mid-August and ended the day Donald Trump was declared the winner of the Presidential election, my team …
Indicator Review: The Trend is Your Friend, But...
Good Monday morning and welcome back. Let's start the week off right with a review of our major stock market indicators. To review, the goal is to set aside our subjective views of what we think might be happening in the markets and focus on a disciplined, unemotional review of what "is" …
Indicator Review: Neutral But Hopeful
Good Monday morning and welcome back. The "Trump Rally" continued last week as investors scrambled to get in position for reflation, higher rates, reduced regulation, and an aggressive fiscal stimulus plan. The assumption is that things will get done in Washington in the coming year since…
Indicator Review: What A Difference A Week Makes
Good Monday morning and welcome back. What a difference a week makes, right? Last week, we were talking about the fact that stocks were in a clearly defined, intermediate-term downtrend and looking at how low the market indices could go. But after the surprise election result, the focus h…
Bond Summary: Of Tightening, Tapering and Trump
Although the dramatic turnaround in stocks from midnight on election night to lunchtime on Wednesday has been getting all the attention, my team's primary focal point this week has been the movement in the bond market. Don't look now fans, but the yield on the U.S. 10-Year T-Note has surg…
Don't Forget About The Bonds
It is safe to say that the prognosticators got this one wrong - really wrong. And even the fast money traders who anticipated a market crisis Tuesday night by pushing Dow futures down some 800 points as it appeared Trump was heading to victory, got it wrong. Again, really wrong.
S…
Surprise!
In what can only be described as an anti-establishment vote and the biggest U.S. election surprise in a generation, Donald Trump has won the White House. While the pundits will be arguing for months on why the polls were dead wrong on the outcome, the fact that the Republicans wound up wi…
Sometimes The Game Is Just Plain Hard
Well, it's finally here. Election day. If you are anything like me, you probably can't wait for the whole thing to be over. For the ads to end. And for the finger-pointing and name calling to stop. So, here's hoping the outcome is clear tonight so the markets can move on tomorrow morning.…
Indicator Review: Time To Get Fooled Again?
Good Monday morning and welcome back. The best news of the week is that the election is FINALLY upon us. Politics aside, here's hoping we get an outcome that doesn't "surprise" the market on Wednesday morning. So while we wait, let's start the week off right by reviewing the state of our …