Daily State of the Markets
Good News is Good Again!
Don't look now fans, but good news appears to be good news again. And for investors trying to make sense of Ms. Market's game, this is also a good thing.
For years, investors have had to endure the concept of bad economic news being good for stock prices and vice versa. This seemi…
Is This For Real, Or...
In the old days, when a stock or a market index broke out of a trading range accompanied by some "oomph," it was good thing. In fact, such an event was considered to be a strong signal that the move would continue and that it was time to jump on board the bull train. "Buy high, sell highe…
Year-End Romp, But...
Good Monday morning and welcome back to the land of blinking screens. With the Fed meeting on tap this week and traders possibly on hold until then, let's start the week with a review of our major stock market indicators. The goal of this exercise is to set aside our subjective views of w…
Seven Macro Concerns About Bonds
While traders continue to focus on the near-term issues including the OPEC meeting, the vote in Italy, and all things Donald Trump, my team is looking ahead to next year from a macro perspective. And the key questions in our minds isn't whether the new administration is going to cut taxes…
Has The "Great Rotation" Finally Begun?
As long-time readers know, I tend to have a glass-is-at-least-half-full view of the markets and the U.S. economy. For example, during the recent sloppy period in stocks, which began in mid-August and ended the day Donald Trump was declared the winner of the Presidential election, my team …
Indicator Review: The Trend is Your Friend, But...
Good Monday morning and welcome back. Let's start the week off right with a review of our major stock market indicators. To review, the goal is to set aside our subjective views of what we think might be happening in the markets and focus on a disciplined, unemotional review of what "is" …
Indicator Review: Neutral But Hopeful
Good Monday morning and welcome back. The "Trump Rally" continued last week as investors scrambled to get in position for reflation, higher rates, reduced regulation, and an aggressive fiscal stimulus plan. The assumption is that things will get done in Washington in the coming year since…
Indicator Review: What A Difference A Week Makes
Good Monday morning and welcome back. What a difference a week makes, right? Last week, we were talking about the fact that stocks were in a clearly defined, intermediate-term downtrend and looking at how low the market indices could go. But after the surprise election result, the focus h…
Bond Summary: Of Tightening, Tapering and Trump
Although the dramatic turnaround in stocks from midnight on election night to lunchtime on Wednesday has been getting all the attention, my team's primary focal point this week has been the movement in the bond market. Don't look now fans, but the yield on the U.S. 10-Year T-Note has surg…