Daily State of the Markets

Is It Time To Worry About The Banks?

From my perch, the question of the day really isn't really about oil, where the low in oil is, or when oil will embark on a real bounce. While it is quite clear that the correlation trade between stocks and crude is locked in the "on" position at this point in time, the bigger concern - a…

Let's Talk This Out...

With the DJIA having bounced a nice, neat 1,000 points off the January 12, 2015 low, the question of the day is if we've seen the bottom of the recent correction - or - if the current rally is simply the traditional oversold bounce that tends to accompany meaningful declines. Obvi…

Free Money Trumps Fear Every Time

Here we go again. Just when the bears thought that this time would be different, the global central bankers decided that it was time to hop back up on their white horses. It never gets old, does it? In an attempt to save the world from the evils of "market volatility," both the EC…

Investors May Be Asking The Wrong Question

I've been getting a lot of questions lately as to whether or not we are seeing the beginning of a bear market. Given that the S&P is down -8.2% year to date and that the mere thought of the last major bear market still causes investors to quake in their boots, the question is certainl…

So Bad That It's Good?

One of the hallmarks of stock market declines seen in what we call the "QE Era" has been the "V-Bottom." If one looks back at the declines seen since 2010, the vast majority of the corrections have traced out a "V" pattern on a chart as the emotional pullbacks have generally been met with…

Watching The Action (And What To Do Now)

Over the years I've learned that it is usually not a good idea to read too much into any single session of Ms. Market's game. In other words, rarely does a single day make - or break - a trend. However, I have to say that Thursday's much ballyhooed bounce, which was expected to be a thing…

Look For A Bounce, But Beware Of...

Well that was interesting. One minute the sky was falling with the Dow down more than 550 points and the S&P 500 having broken an important line in the sand. And the next, well, pundits were falling all over themselves trying to be get on record calling the bottom. Such is life in the…

The Message Is...

Good morning. While there isn't always a "message" to be gleaned from the stock market action, there are times when you can get a hint about what is happening in Ms. Market's game by studying how and why things unfold at the corner of Broad and Wall. So, let's run down yesterday's action …

If It's A Bear...

Good morning. With the S&P 500 down 8.0% on the year, it is safe to say that 2016 isn't off to a great start so far (for those keeping score at home, this has been the worst start to a new calendar year on record) . With the S&P 500 down 10.9% from the most recent (11/3/15) high a…

Is The Game Changing?

Good morning. Let me cut right to the chase this morning by saying that unless the bulls can get their act together and produce some buying that is driven by more than algorithmic-induced trend-following and/or short-covering, is prompted by more than an oversold condition and a search fo…