Daily State of the Markets

Sifting Through The Tea Leaves

As I have likely mentioned a time or twenty, the purpose of my oftentimes meandering morning market missive is to (a) identify the primary drivers of the market action, (b) ponder the important questions/issues facing the market, and (c) to try and stay in tune with what is ACTUALLY happe…

The Catalyst Is Clear, The Direction Is Not

If the action seen over past couple weeks has told us anything, it is that (a) the worries over global growth have dissipated and (b) there appears to be some trepidation over the state of the current earnings season. The first part of this analysis explains why stocks have blaste…

False Alarm

The big rally seen over the last two weeks took many in the bear camp by surprise. Just when our furry friends thought stocks were ready to break down and embark on a new leg lower, a 7.1% rally in the S&P 500 sprang up out of nowhere. However, for those following along in the…

Don't Look Now, But There May Be Reasons For Optimism

The question of the day remains largely the same at this point in time: Have we seen the lows of this move or are the bears about to retake control of the market again? To be sure, there are lots of reasons to remain negative on the outlook for stocks here. There is the situation …

If I Were Stranded On A Deserted Island...

Up until a few days ago, it looked like the bears were going to win the day. But then again, this is what "retests" are all about. The worries return to the market, the selling intensifies, and everyone in the game is reminded of what the bad old days of 2000-02 and 2008 felt like.

Crash Playbook Continues To Play Out

Immediately after the August 24 mini crash, I opined that the bottoming process could begin as early as that very week, which it did. I also wrote extensively and did a fair amount of media discussions on the topic. So far, the major indices are nicely following that scenario which had st…

Markets Back in Freakout Mode - What To Look For Next

I am short on time this morning, but with the market apparently back in "freakout" mode I thought it might be a good idea to quickly review some of the key takeaways from the current market action. First, the excuse du jour for yesterday's dance to the downside remains the same - …

Are The Indicators Still Reliable?

While there are many issues weighing on the minds of investors these days including what the Fed is going to do next (and more importantly, when they are going to do it), the state of China's economy/stock market (last night's data wasn't good), and whether or not the bear market in commo…

Did Correction Fix the Valuation Problems?

Friday's expiration-enhanced dance to the downside, which came on the heels of the Thursday's Fed-induced reversal, left investors wondering if the market wasn't ready to roll over and retest the recent lows again. The bears could be heard telling anyone willing to listen that since the "…

Fed Inaction Puts Uncertainty Back In Play

Although the FOMC did exactly what Fed Funds futures and the majority of economists had expected (i.e. nothing) and the stock market indices did move up after Janet Yellen said the majority of the committee wants to raise rates by the end of the year, the fact that nobody really knows wha…