State of the Markets
Rocky Road Ahead?
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From my seat, the key driver to the stock market game appears to be the outlook for growth. As in what the growth rates for both GDP and corporate earnings will be once we get beyond comparisons to the economic shutdown phase.
As I wrote last time, growth is likely peaking due to …
Is 'Peak Everything' A Problem?
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Despite surprisingly good data on Retail Sales, stocks of all styles, sizes, and shapes took a hit on Friday. Semis, banks, smallcaps, midcaps, and large caps - all down. Value - down. Cyclicals - down. Growth - also down. Save the traditional risk-off sectors such as healthcare, staples,…
Bulls (Still) Deserve Benefit of Doubt
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I was recently asked to provide a quick answer to the question "where are we now?" as far as the markets are concerned. While "quick answers" are not usually part of my repertoire, I decided to give it a shot.
Cutting to the chase, I believe the stock market is currently in the pr…
Why I'm Not Worried About Valuations
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One of the bear camp's main arguments is that stocks should be moving down instead of up because of high valuations. Our furry friends suggest that with traditional valuation metrics (Price-to-earnings/dividends/book value/sales, etc.) in the stratosphere, stocks simply have no upside. Th…
The Key to the Second Half Will Be...
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As the second quarter of 2021 winds to a close, the S&P 500 finds itself at all-time highs. To many, the new heights the venerable large-cap index has recently scaled is more than a little bewildering.
After all, wasn't the stock market in the throes of a corrective phase just…
What's Up With Bond Yields?
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I am finishing up a long weekend visit with family in Santa Fe this morning, so I'm going to keep today's missive short and sweet. My current take is that markets remain in a consolidation mode and are now in the process of digesting/adjusting to the new info from last week's Fed meeting,…
About That Inflation Problem
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For those of you keeping score at home, it was the inflation data that dominated the stock market game last week. While the numbers were eye-popping, the market reaction was not. And the narrative around the subject appears to be evenly split between the two teams on the field.
In…
What's Next?
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Stocks didn't make much progress again last week and appear to remain trapped in a consolidation phase. While the S&P 500 did manage to eke out a gain, none of the major indices were able to break out of their respective trading ranges.
The sideways action seems to be driven b…
New Information
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Last week, we looked at three key issues that the stock market seemed to be struggling with: (1) The possibility of the Fed "tapering" their bond-buying program earlier than expected, (2) the potential for inflation to become ingrained (aka non-transitory), and (3) the unavoidable slowdow…
