State of the Markets

Hard To Argue With Bulls Here

By: David Moenning

Executive Summary: From my seat, the state of the market depends largely on the time frame lens one is viewing the market through. Looking at the action from a shorter-term perspective, volatility remains high due likely to the uncertainty over the fate of additio…
Understanding The Current Market Logic image

Understanding The Current Market Logic

By: David Moenning

Given the state of the COVID headlines, the ongoing fighting over additional economic stimulus, the prospect of higher taxes next year, and the potential for a contested election, one couldn't be blamed for a less than optimistic outlook toward the stock market. However, "market logic" is…

All About The Stimulus

By: David Moenning

Executive Summary: I'm often asked why I keep a 1-minute chart of the S&P 500 on my screen at all times. Since I don't trade on a short-term basis, it can be argued that the minute-to-minute movement of the market should be ignored. However, by watching the in…
Bulls Not Out Of The Woods Yet image

Bulls Not Out Of The Woods Yet

By: David Moenning

Executive Summary: Last week, I opined that the key to the near-term action was the battle that looked to be raging over the 50-day moving average. While I haven't placed much emphasis on the 50- and/or 200-day moving averages in decades, it appears that the press…

Keep Those Seatbelts Fastened

By: David Moenning

Executive Summary: The current narrative in the stock market appears to be that with the President and a bunch of WH staffers/Senators having contracted COVID, the chances of a stimulus bill have improved over the last few days. In response, stocks have rallied on…

Headline Risk Returns

Before we get to our weekly review of the stock market's fundamental backdrop, there are two important news items to take in - both of which can be viewed from a macro/fundamental lens. First there is the headline that the President and First Lady both have tested positive for Cor…

Bulls Are On Their Own

By: David Moenning

Executive Summary: From my seat, the primary driving factors behind the stock market action continue to be (a) the state of the economic recovery, (b) the outlook for additional stimulus, and (c) the outlook on the COVID crisis. On the latter subject, the key seem…

The Battle For Control Is On

By: David Moenning

Executive Summary: From my seat, the key to the action on the chart of the S&P 500 here is the battle for the 50-day moving average. To review, the bulls were able to make a stop at the 3225 zone on a closing basis. This was important because it kept the pullb…

Markets Like The Stimulus Talk

By: David Moenning

Executive Summary: Although September has lived up to the historical script as being a weak month for stock prices, the mood on Wall Street appears to be improving a bit to start the week. From my seat, the more upbeat view on the stock market can be tied directly…

Looking For Clues To Next Move

By: David Moenning

Executive Summary: After the bulls were able to produce a "good overbought" condition that lasted two full months on the back of the reopening trade and an improving economy, the bears finally found a way to get up off the mat and push the market into an oversold …