State of the Markets

The Driving Force Behind The Current Action Is...

By: David Moenning

One of the most important lessons I have learned about the business of investing is the drivers of the market action change over time. Sometimes dramatically so. It is for this reason that no one, I repeat, no one, has ever perfected the game for any length of time. You see, like golf, th…

Party On, Wayne!

By: David Moenning

The joyride to the upside continued in the stock market last week as the S&P 500 surged another 2.5%. If my calculator is correct, that means the venerable blue-chip index is now up 10.7% so far in 2019 and has put in a nifty gain of 18% since the December 24th panic attack. Impressiv…

Bull vs. Bear. The Line In The Sand?

By: David Moenning

On Tuesday, February 5 and again on Wednesday, February 6, the S&P 500 bumped into its 200-day moving average. While I'm not exactly sure why this particular indicator captures the attention of so many (there are a myriad of more effective trend-following tools readily available), the…

Herd Behavior

By: David Moenning

"Herd behavior, or the tendency of individuals in a group to 'follow the trend,' has frequently been observed in equity markets. Herd behavior in investors leads to a convergence of action." [Yan, Zhao, Sun (2012)] "Theoretical models on herd behavior predict that under d…

Where Do Things Stand Now?

By: David Moenning

To be sure, it is rare to see the mood of the market swing from the depths of despair seen on Christmas Eve to the "happy days are here again" feeling of last week in such a short period of time. To review, starting December 3rd, stocks began moving down - in a straight line - wit…

All Clear?

By: David Moenning

The bad news is that after a rather rambunctious rally, the S&P 500 remains -8.9% from its all-time high. The good news is that after the -19.8% shellacking that ended on Christmas Eve, the stock market now starts the week well above its December lows and looking good. To be s…

Is Enough Baked In?

By: David Moenning

After a very scary decline and then an impressive rally, the question most investors are probably asking themselves is, where are we now? In order to get our bearings, let's review where we've been. Recall that as of the market close on Christmas eve, the bears had pummeled the S&…

The Magic Words

By: David Moenning

Well that was fun. Don't look now fans, but after Friday's joyride to the upside, the S&P 500 is up nearly 8% from its Christmas Eve low and is now down only -13.3% from the most recent high water mark. My guess is everybody is feeling a little bit better about the stock market right …

Is It Over? And What To Expect Next

By: David Moenning

I ended last week's pre-holiday missive with the following: "It is easy to say the bulls are due. Really due." And as if right on cue, stocks proceeded to bounce hard the following session with the Dow Jones Industrial Average enjoying its biggest one-day point gain in history: 1,086.25. …

More Than Meets The Eye Happening Here

By: David Moenning

I attended a holiday gathering for one of my advisor clients on Friday evening. While everyone appeared to be in the spirit of the season, when the conversation eventually turned to the market action, the mood quickly changed. In talking with fellow financial professionals through…