State of the Markets
Historical Cycles Disagree With Wall Street
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In last week's meandering market missive, I opined that analysts of all shapes and sizes were pretty much singing the same song right now regarding the outlook for the economy, inflation, corporate earnings, and in turn, the stock market.
To review, I wrote... The refrain goes…
Everyone Is Singing The Same Song
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Good morning and welcome to the first day of a brand-new year. If you are like most folks in this game, you are likely relishing the idea of being done with the nightmare that was 2022 and are ready to hit the reset button.
From my seat, the question of the day is how traders are …
Place Your Bets
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If there is anything I've learned in my 35+ years of managing money for a living it is that markets HATE uncertainty - especially when it comes to the macroeconomic outlook. And I think it is safe to say that the extreme uncertainty surrounding the outlooks for inflation, interest rates, …
The Key Questions
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With the stock market putting up gains for a second consecutive month, the question of the day is if the recent rebound represents the beginning of a new cyclical bull market - or- simply another in a series of oversold bounces during the time of year when stocks typically move higher.
Looking Ahead to Better Days?
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With stocks enjoying a pretty solid rally of late, many investors are likely wondering why the mood has changed at the corner of Broad and Wall. Oh, and of course, if the rally will amount to anything more than a bounce in an ongoing bear market.
While we can't know the answer to …
The Bottoming Process?
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Although my market missives tend meander a bit at times, this week I'd like to cut directly to the chase. So here goes. Although the action has been more than a little crazy lately and there are a ton of moving parts, the bottom line is I believe the market just might be in the midst of a…
Making Sense of the Mayhem
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Talk about a wild week. Normally I am loathe to recount the happenings in the markets of any calendar period as I find the exercise a bore. But given the rollercoaster ride investors were treated to last week, I think it is important to understand why Ms. Market acted the way she did.…
Things Are Starting To Break
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Anyone watching the action last week knows that technical breaks are happening in lots of markets. For example, my guess is you are aware that stocks broke to a new lows Friday, with the S&P 500 now back to where it stood in November 2020. And you may also be aware that the yield on t…
The Problem is Obvious, But...
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By now, the problem is obvious. Higher inflation for longer than had been expected. Ditto for the Fed's rate hiking plans. The outlooks for both the economy and earnings are heading in the wrong direction - and fast. In response, so too is the appropriate multiple to apply to those declin…
