State of the Markets
What Else Can Go Wrong?
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To be sure, the action in the stock market has been a bit schizophrenic of late. Up one day, down the next, with no follow-through seen in either direction last week. As such, the key question in my mind is, where are we now?
From a very short-term perspective, it looks like Wall …
Closer To The End Than The Beginning?
To be sure, it's a very busy time for anyone managing money in the markets. As such, I'm going to provide an executive summary of what I see happening at this time.
Summary
Stock market officially in "growth scare" mode. Worries about recession and EPS est…
Have Stocks Lost Touch With Reality?
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As I have mentioned a time or two hundred over the years, I believe the stock market is... everybody join in now... "a discounting mechanism of future expectations." So, with the S&P 500 closing down for a sixth consecutive week - something that hasn't happened since the not-so fun ye…
The Changing Narrative
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Volatility appears to be the new normal for calendar year 2022. Lest we forget, the new year began with the S&P 500 moving to a fresh all-time high. Something that investors had become accustomed to in 2021. Things were looking good with the economy reopening and GDP growth looking st…
Do We Really Need To W.I.N.?
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Just about everybody on the planet expects Jay Powell's Fed to hike the Fed Funds rate by 50 basis points (0.50%) at the conclusion of this week's FOMC meeting tomorrow. Futures predict a 100% chance of such a move and a more than 90% chance of another 50 bp hike at the next meeting in Ju…
Recalibrating On The Fly
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Well, that was harsh. As of last Tuesday, the market had a pretty good feel to it and a test of the 200-day moving average appeared to be in the works. The following morning, that test occurred right on schedule as the market opened strong.
But then it happened. Jay Powell started…
Figuring It Out
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So many issues. So little time. Worry, worry, worry! This pretty much sums up the bear case in the stock market these days. Whether it be inflation, the Fed, Putin's heinous attack on Ukraine, shortages, supply chain issues, earnings, or economic growth, there seems to be no shortage of t…
Don't Fight The Fed?
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The late, great Marty Zweig, who had a huge influence on my career at a young age, was famous for his approach to managing risk in the stock market. As longtime readers are likely aware, one of his primary rules was, "Don't fight the Fed." Zweig, who along with Ned Davis (another constant…
A Pair of Pivots Worth Watching
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The primary purpose of my oftentimes meandering market missive is to identify the primary drivers of the near-term market action. As I've stated a time or twenty, I'm of the mind that if I can understand what markets are doing and why, staying opinion agnostic in the process, I feel I sho…
