David Moenning
AI or Bust!
I was asked recently to sum up the action in the stock market as succinctly as possible. As long-time readers are likely aware, brevity is not exactly my strong suit. But after giving it some thought, I did manage to come up with a three-word summary, which also doubles as the title of th…
While We Wait...
Make no mistake about it; this week's Fed meeting is the primary focal point for market participants. And from my seat, the outcome and/or the "tone" of Jay Powell's press conference is likely to become the driver of the next near-term trend in both the stock and bond markets.
Whi…
A New Bull Market?
The stock market appears to have spent the vast majority of the last week or so doing, well, a lot of nothing. In short, after the S&P 500 moved to the high end of the recent trading range, which, as our heroes in horns tell us, is certainly an encouraging sign, traders decided to hit…
The Great Debate
On various calls with institutional clients over the past couple of weeks, I have summarized the current state of the market as an ongoing debate between the bulls and bears - playing out daily. I opined that the macro situation boils down to a series of questions. For example: Will the e…
What's It Gonna Be?
With the macro backdrop remaining fairly fluid these days, it appears that market players are in search of the appropriate levels - for stocks, bonds, fed funds futures, gold, and just about anything else that might be impacted by a burgeoning crisis.
A week ago, traders were posi…
The Question Of The Day Is...
The question of the day is simple. Are investors dealing with another banking crisis, which poses what is called "systemic" risk (I.E. Risks that threaten the entire banking system) or what my colleague Jeff Pietsch, CFA terms "idiosyncratic" risk - meaning risks that are specific to each…
How Did This Happen?
And just like that, the game has changed. Almost completely. Gone is all the fretting about inflation, the Fed's final few rate hikes, and the corresponding impacts on the economy and earnings. Instead, investors of all shapes and sizes find themselves faced with a banking crisis.
Bostic Boost
Until Thursday afternoon, the path of least resistance for both stock and bond prices appeared to be down. Given the macro narrative, this actually made some sense. After all, with February's inflation and economic data coming in hotter/better than expected and the Fed pledging to remain …
Cautiously Optimistic For Now
Here we go again. Just when you thought positive economic news was a good thing - because strong data support the soft landing (or better) narrative - traders turned the game on its head. Again.
Stocks experienced their worst day of the year yesterday on the back of news that S&am…
