David Moenning
As January Goes...
It is said that those who ignore history are condemned to repeat it. As such, analysts on Wall Street spend an inordinate amount of time on what are called historical analogs and seasonal patterns in the market. The idea to look back at the past and look for historical tendencies.
Are The Bulls Back?
In last week's meandering market missive, I opined that, "the next major trend - in either direction - is likely to be driven by the outlook/expectation for the state of the economy". While I will admit that this isn't exactly groundbreaking analysis, I continue to believe this i…
A Matter of Timing
With the exceptions of an ugly day/afternoon here and there, the tenor of the market appears to have improved so far in calendar year 2023. And with both the "Santa Claus/Year-End" and the "First Five Days" indicators positive, investors can't be blamed for looking on the bright side thes…
The Most Important Chart of the Year
As a new year gets underway, it is always important to be on the lookout for changes in the markets. Examples here include changes to leadership, trend, investor sentiment, momentum, and/or the macro-outlook. One of the important lessons I've learned is that changes can happen fast - espe…
Historical Cycles Disagree With Wall Street
In last week's meandering market missive, I opined that analysts of all shapes and sizes were pretty much singing the same song right now regarding the outlook for the economy, inflation, corporate earnings, and in turn, the stock market.
To review, I wrote... The refrain goes…
Everyone Is Singing The Same Song
Good morning and welcome to the first day of a brand-new year. If you are like most folks in this game, you are likely relishing the idea of being done with the nightmare that was 2022 and are ready to hit the reset button.
From my seat, the question of the day is how traders are …
Place Your Bets
If there is anything I've learned in my 35+ years of managing money for a living it is that markets HATE uncertainty - especially when it comes to the macroeconomic outlook. And I think it is safe to say that the extreme uncertainty surrounding the outlooks for inflation, interest rates, …
The Key Questions
With the stock market putting up gains for a second consecutive month, the question of the day is if the recent rebound represents the beginning of a new cyclical bull market - or- simply another in a series of oversold bounces during the time of year when stocks typically move higher.
Looking Ahead to Better Days?
With stocks enjoying a pretty solid rally of late, many investors are likely wondering why the mood has changed at the corner of Broad and Wall. Oh, and of course, if the rally will amount to anything more than a bounce in an ongoing bear market.
While we can't know the answer to …
