Daily State of the Markets

Are Bonds Crossing The Line In The Sand?

When stocks enter what I like to call "melt up" mode, everything is right with the world. The economic data is strong. Earnings are fantastic. Inflation is low. Consumers are happy and shopping. Employers are hiring. In short, things look good as far as the eye can see. Having bee…

Is The Most Hated Market Now The Most Loved?

At this time last year, many referred to the current bull market as "one of the most hated" in history. There was a host of things to worry about and if memory serves, many prominent analysts opined that there was no justification for the joyride to the upside that was occurring. Oh, and …

Bulls On The Run

The "State of the Markets" With the S&P 500 up 2.6% so far in 2018, it appears that, barring an unforeseen disaster today, the market will wind up with a gain for the first five trading days of the new year. And as the saying goes, "As the first five days of the year go, so …

File This Jobs Report in the Goldilocks Category

If it's the first Friday of the month, it must be jobs day. The Labor Department reported that the economy added 148,000 jobs in December, which was well below the expectations for 190,000 new jobs. December's total was also below November's torrid pace of 252,000, which was revised up fr…

Could Good News Become Bad Again Soon?

To be sure, inflation does not appear to be a major threat to the economy at this point in time. And as a quick aside, when I began in the business in early 1980, the "problem" was too much inflation, not too little. Thus, I've found all the hand wringing about inflation failing to meet c…

Can The Bears Find Their Long-Lost Mojo?

The "State of the Markets" As we embark on a fresh new calendar year (aka the scorecard in our business), the question of the day is – in my mind, in my mind, anyway – will the bears will be able to locate their long-lost mojo anytime soon? To be sure, it has…

Fear Has Left The Building

Although the S&P 500 finished the session with the biggest decline in nearly two months, the fact that the venerable index didn't fall 3% yesterday meant a new record for the longest period of time without a 3% correction in the stock market. According to Ryan Detrick, Monday marked t…

Should You Wait For Valuations To Improve?

One of my favorite Wall Street clichés relating to stock market valuations goes something like this: "Valuations don't matter until they do, and then they matter a lot." Actually, you can probably replace the word valuations with any issue you'd like and the phrase would st…

All About Fund Flows?

To say that the stock market has become a low-volatility game this year is definitely an understatement. For example, it has now been two months since the last time the S&P 500 dropped by 1% or more and according to Ned Davis Research, this is now the longest stretch without even a 3%…

Good Enough, But...

Good morning. It's a new week so let's get started with a review of my key market models/indicators and see where we stand. To review, the primary goal of this exercise is to try and remove any subjective notions about what "should" be happening in the market in an attempt to stay in line…