Daily State of the Markets
Out of Sync
I have written many times about the tendency for the market to follow various seasonal patterns. Frankly, it is eerie how often the S&P 500 winds up mirroring these historical cycles. To be sure, the market doesn't always follow the seasonal patterns and therefore, it doesn't pay to t…
The Next Bear Won't Look Like The Last One
Don't look now fans, but the United States is enjoying one of the longest economic expansions in history. In fact, First Trust tells us that if the economy can avoid slipping into recession for the next 18 months, this will become the longest period of economic growth on record. Granted, …
Steady As She Goes
Good morning. Although we're getting a late start to the week, market analysis definitely falls into the "better late than never" category. So, let's go ahead and review my key market models/indicators and see where we stand. To review, the primary goal of this exercise is to try and remo…
If You Knew What Would Happen Next...
As I have mentioned a time or two in the past, I think one of the biggest lessons investors (professional or otherwise) need to learn is to put the T.V. on mute, to avoid reading everything on the internet, to stop listening to "tips" and "trades," and to forget about the "fast money" alt…
Indicator Review: Looking For Confirmation
Good morning. Sadly, the first week of October starts with the news of the deadliest gunman attack in U.S. history. So, let me first say that our thoughts and prayers go out to the victims, the injured, and all those traumatized by the sickening attack that occurred in Las Vegas last nigh…
What, Me Worry?
As long-time readers are likely aware, I believe in trying to keep portfolios "in tune" with the primary market trend. In this case, we're talking about the bull market in stocks, which began either on March 9, 2009, September 26, 2011, or February 8, 2016, depending on your time-frame/cy…
Final Thought On Valuations: The Bears Could Be Wrong
I've spent a fair amount time recently talking about the various risks of the current market environment. In short, my view is that risk factors are elevated at this time from a macro perspective. I have suggested that this is due at least in part, to market valuation levels, many of whic…
Another Take on Valuation - It's Not As Bad As You Might Think
Yesterday's dive in the high profile FAANGs, which was highlighted by a $7.87 (4.49%) decline in Facebook (NYSE: FB) led to renewed discussion in the bear camp about the risk levels in the overall market. To hear the our furry friends tell it, yesterday's decline was a harbinger of bad th…
Will "QT" Usher In The Great Bond Bear?
And now it begins - the "QT" era, that is. After spending nine years doing everything it could dream up to keep the U.S. economy from entering a disinflationary spiral, the Fed will officially begin to "unwind" its balance sheet next month.
In an attempt to return both the central…
Understanding The "Elevated Risk" Concept
I have been saying for some time now that the stock market is not a low risk proposition at this stage of the game. There are several reasons for taking this stance, but Exhibit A in this argument is the state of stock market valuations. So, this morning, I'd like to review some hard, col…