Daily State of the Markets
What, Me Worry?
As long-time readers are likely aware, I believe in trying to keep portfolios "in tune" with the primary market trend. In this case, we're talking about the bull market in stocks, which began either on March 9, 2009, September 26, 2011, or February 8, 2016, depending on your time-frame/cy…
Final Thought On Valuations: The Bears Could Be Wrong
I've spent a fair amount time recently talking about the various risks of the current market environment. In short, my view is that risk factors are elevated at this time from a macro perspective. I have suggested that this is due at least in part, to market valuation levels, many of whic…
Another Take on Valuation - It's Not As Bad As You Might Think
Yesterday's dive in the high profile FAANGs, which was highlighted by a $7.87 (4.49%) decline in Facebook (NYSE: FB) led to renewed discussion in the bear camp about the risk levels in the overall market. To hear the our furry friends tell it, yesterday's decline was a harbinger of bad th…
Will "QT" Usher In The Great Bond Bear?
And now it begins - the "QT" era, that is. After spending nine years doing everything it could dream up to keep the U.S. economy from entering a disinflationary spiral, the Fed will officially begin to "unwind" its balance sheet next month.
In an attempt to return both the central…
Understanding The "Elevated Risk" Concept
I have been saying for some time now that the stock market is not a low risk proposition at this stage of the game. There are several reasons for taking this stance, but Exhibit A in this argument is the state of stock market valuations. So, this morning, I'd like to review some hard, col…
The Most Bullish Thing A Market Can Do Is...
Good Monday morning and welcome back. It's a new week, so let's start things off with an objective review of my key market models/indicators and see where we stand. To review, the primary goal of this exercise is to try and remove any subjective notions about what "should" be happening in…
Bulls Get Benefit of Doubt, But...
It's a new week, so let's start things off right with an objective review of my key market models/indicators and see where things stand. To review, the primary goal of this exercise is to try and remove any subjective notions about what "should" be happening in the market in order to stay…
Enter the Cruelest Month
Geopolitics are back in focus on this first trading day of September. North Korea's push forward with another test on the nuclear front over the weekend caused U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley to suggest that Kim Jong Un is "begging for war." And given that South Korea is saying that the North…
Does The Jobs Report Change Anything?
The first Friday of a new month means one thing: The Jobs report. Viewed by many as the most important economic report of the month, the data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment for August surprised to the downside.
The Labor Department reported that the economy created 156,000 n…
Riding The Range Until...
It is a safe bet that our furry friends in the bear camp figured the combination of Hurricane Harvey and increasing tensions with North Korea would get the party going to the downside. However, a funny thing happened on the way to the debacle; stocks decided to reverse course and rally in…