Daily State of the Markets

Playing The Game According To Conditions

For some time now, I've been summing up my big-picture take on the stock market by suggesting that (a) it's a bull market until proven otherwise and (b) risk factors are elevated. To review, the primary risks I'm referencing are the valuation metrics, which, in general, are currently at h…

On The Other Hand...

Yesterday, we explored the historical cycles of the stock market. I showed that a composite of the one-year seasonal, the four-year Presidential, and the ten-year decennial cycles projects a nasty decline could begin any time now. However, I opined that since the market seems to be on goo…

Not A Pretty Picture

With the stock market having gained ground yet again last month (July's return of 1.93% for the S&P 500 was the second best of 2017) and sporting a return of 10.4% on the year, the question of the day is, where do we go from here? The bulls argue that it will be onward and upw…

Improving Conditions, But...

Good Monday morning and welcome back to the land of blinking screens. Russia, Trump's Tweets as well as his latest hiring/firing, a big M&A deal, and North Korea's latest missile tests are in focus to start the week. But since it's the start of a new week, let's focus on our o…

Quick Take: Tech Selloff, Economic Data in Focus

Here's your "quick take" on this morning's market... Yesterday's sudden selloff in tech, the failure of the "skinny repeal," disappointing earnings from both Amazon and Starbucks, U.S. GDP, and the surprisingly good economic data across the pond are in focus this morning. …

Mid-Year Valuation Review

One of the key issues in the stock market revolves around the idea of valuations. Cutting to the chase, the question is whether or not the growth rate of the economy and, in turn, earnings, is strong enough to justify what most see as lofty valuation levels in stocks. One of the k…

The Next Big Worry? Well, Never Mind...

A couple weeks back, I opined that the next big problem for the stock market might revolve around global central bankers changing their monetary policy tune on a coordinated basis. The idea was simple. Stocks have enjoyed the benefits of capital creation via global QE programs since the c…

A Bull Market Until Proven Otherwise

Good Monday morning and welcome back to the land of blinking screens. Global growth, the Trump/Russia situation, oil, the upcoming Fed meeting, and the greenback are in focus to start the week. On the growth front, the euro area Markit PMI fell to 55.8 in July, which is the weakes…

Health Care Circus, Earnings In Focus

I am technology-challenged today (why my laptop had to crap out 21 days before I get my big desktop rig back is beyond me), so I am going to keep this brief. Health Care and earnings are the focal points in the early going today and if the early action is any guide, we can probabl…

Indicator Review: Not Much To Complain About

Good Monday morning and welcome back. It's the start of a new week so let's get right to our objective review the key market models and indicators and see where things stand. To review, the primary goal of this weekly exercise is to remove any subjective notions I might have in an effort …