Daily State of the Markets
If History Is Our Guide, Harvey Will Cause Stocks To...
Word is that Hurricane Harvey will end up being the most expensive natural disaster in U.S. history. According to AccuWeather, the estimate for the full cost of the storm will approach $160 billion. To put this number in perspective, Harvey is expected to cost about the same as the combin…
Indicators Suggest Some Caution Still Warranted
Please accept my apologies for the tardiness of this week's report. We had traveled to Chicagoland for family gatherings over the weekend and I awoke Monday morning to no internet where we were staying. And while the trek home was an adventure thanks to Mother Nature, all is right with my…
All Eyes On Jackson Hole
With this being one of the last Friday's of the summer vacation season, we can probably expect trading volumes to remain light today. But make no mistake about it; all eyes will be on Jackson Hole this morning where both Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi are slated to speak.
The key h…
Looking To The Weight Of The Evidence
Stocks pulled back a bit yesterday in response to Donald Trump's threat to shut down the government if he didn't get his border wall. On this topic, it is important to note that (a) the government is slated to run out of money on October 1 and (b) the House has already approved $1.6 billi…
Indicator Review: Some Patience Seems To Be In Order
Good morning and welcome back to the land of blinking screens. From my seat, the state of the Trump administration appears to have taken the place of tensions with North Korea this week in terms of what markets are most concerned about. This may be a temporary thing during what is traditi…
Have The Bears Found Their Raison d'Etre?
Good morning and welcome back to the land of blinking screens. The key to the markets in the early going on this fine Monday morning is the apparent easing of tensions with North Korea. For example, Central Intelligence Agency Director Mike Pompeo said over the weekend he'd seen "no intel…
Quick Take: Job Market Continues to Improve, Bulls Have Work to Do
The first Friday of a new month means that jobs are in focus - so let's get right to the numbers. The Labor Department reported the economy created 209,000 new jobs in the month of July, which was well above the Reuters consensus expectation for 183,000 new jobs. In addition, the nation's…
Playing The Game According To Conditions
For some time now, I've been summing up my big-picture take on the stock market by suggesting that (a) it's a bull market until proven otherwise and (b) risk factors are elevated. To review, the primary risks I'm referencing are the valuation metrics, which, in general, are currently at h…
On The Other Hand...
Yesterday, we explored the historical cycles of the stock market. I showed that a composite of the one-year seasonal, the four-year Presidential, and the ten-year decennial cycles projects a nasty decline could begin any time now. However, I opined that since the market seems to be on goo…