Daily State of the Markets
A Fool's Errand
As we entered calendar year 2017, hope reigned supreme. There was hope for tax reform, reduced legislation, and a plan to rebuild America's infrastructure. And with Republicans controlling the White House and both houses of Congress, getting the new administration's agenda implemented was…
Indicator Review: It's a Bull Market Until Proven Otherwise
Good Monday morning and welcome back. Since it's the start of a new week, let's get right to our objective review the key market models and indicators. To review, the primary goal of this weekly exercise is to remove any subjective notions and ensure that we stay in line with what "is" ha…
Are The Economic Surprise Indices Trying To Tell Us Something?
As the saying goes, "There are three kinds of lies. Lies. Damned lies. And statistics."
Experience has taught me that this is especially true in the investing game as I have seen countless analysts, columnists, and pundits over the years use whatever data they can dig up to prove …
The Real Inflation Problem
With Janet Yellen having raised the Fed Funds rate a fourth time last week to a target range of 1.0% - 1.25%, there is/has been an awful lot of talk about inflation. In fact, the current annualized level of inflation (~2%) is being used as justification for the Fed's plan to return r…
Additional Signs of Improvement
Good Monday morning and welcome back. Although the ECB and FOMC Meetings are over and rates have been increased in the U.S., the Fed remains a focal in the markets due to the fact that we have a full calendar of Fed-speak on tap for this week. For example, at 8:00 a.m this morning, Federa…
BlackRock: "Win More by Losing Less"
When interviewing investment managers, one of the most important things to understand is the manager's and/or the firm's bias. Make no mistake about it; most all managers have a "view of the world" (aka how the markets work) that will impact their approach to managing money. Thus, it is c…
Indicators Show Signs of Improvement, But...
Good Monday morning and welcome back. We made it through the ECB meeting, the UK election, and Comey's eye-opening testimony last week and well, the major indices are none the worse for wear. Next up is this week's Fed announcement (where Yellen's gang is expected to raise rates another 2…
Wait, BlackRock Is Saying What?
With no fewer than three potential big, bad events (and a fourth - the FOMC meeting - on tap for next week), traders appear to be in wait-and-see mode at the present time. And since I do not believe in making predictions about what the news will be - or more importantly how Ms. Market is …
The Fed's On A Mission - Will It Be Different This Time?
To be sure, there are those that remain concerned about the state of the U.S. economy. The glass-is-at-least-half-empty crowd used last week's weaker-than expected Nonfarm Payrolls report as Exhibit A in their argument. And while the more upbeat economic crowd cites the timing of data col…
Remember: Fundamentals "Trump" Politics
Don't you just love this game? One minute the stock market is rallying to new heights on the back of Trump's big plans (and the related odds of said plans being implemented). The next thing you know, "repeal and replace" is dead on arrival, tax reform is looking less and less likely in 20…