Daily State of the Markets
Happy Birthday!
Don't look now fans, but the current secular bull market in stocks turns 8 years old today. Yep, that's right; 8 years ago, today, Jamie Dimon stepped to the microphone on the White House lawn and reminded everyone that his bank not only wasn't at risk of collapse, but was actually profit…
Today's Focus: Yellen, Tepper, and Jobs
There are three items of note on this fine Wednesday morning. First, let's remember that the FOMC is meeting next week. And while the market now expects Yellen & Co. to raise the Fed Funds rate target by 0.25%, traders don't tend to make big commitments in front of important events.
If It's Obvious, It's Obviously...
By now, everybody knows the bull argument. In short, stocks are discounting better days ahead for the economy and earnings, less regulation, a "fantastic" stimulus package, and of course, "massive" tax reform. But as I've opined a time or two, the key here is that these expectations must …
Exploring The Bear Case
By now, just about everybody on the planet knows the key tenets of the bull case. In short, our heroes in horns contend that stocks are discounting better days ahead for the economy, and in turn, earnings, less regulation, a "phenomenal" tax plan, and an economic stimulus package sprinkle…
Let's Be Clear, The Table is Set...
Good Monday morning and welcome back. Now that all the Oscar hoopla and all the political commentary is behind us, we can return to our normal lives. So, let's start the week off with a review my key market models and indicators.
The State of the Trend
We …
The Trend Is Your Friend, But...
Good Monday - oops, I mean Tuesday morning and welcome back. Although the drama in D.C. continues to build on several topics and I continue to be asked what my "Trump Contingency Plan" is in case of trouble (short answer: I don't have one - nor do I have "Trump Success Plan" - we manage m…
The Real Inflation Problem
Stocks spiked again on Wednesday with the S&P 500, DJIA, NASDAQ Composite, S&P Midcap, and Russell 2000 indices all finishing at new all-time highs. Once again, investors can thank Mr. Trump for the increased value of their brokerage accounts and 401K's as it was the mere mention …
Odd Behavior? Or...
It is a well-known fact that Janet Yellen is an uber-dove when it comes to interest rates. For those not schooled in the world of Fedspeak, the term "dove" means that the central banker in question errs on the side of lower rates and higher economic growth. This is diametrically opposed t…
Green Means Go, Right?
Good Monday morning and welcome back. Apparently all it took was one utterance of the word "phenomenal" by Mr. Trump in order to remind traders that tax reform hasn't been forgotten and that the plan is likely to be pro-business. Since the President used one of his signature adjectives to…
The Bears Tell Us...
One of the big questions at this point in the game is, can stocks really go higher from here? After all, the S&P 500 is up 10% from the pre-election low and the NASDAQ Composite has added 12.6% since November 4th. So, with stocks having run a long way in a short period of time, isn't …