Daily State of the Markets
The Message From the Indicators Is...
Good Monday morning and welcome back. While spring break season is underway and you may be more focused on getting to the beach or working on your short game, let's start the week with a review my key market models and indicators. Remember, the primary goal of this exercise (something I a…
Lines In The Sand
Here we go again - Fed Day, March 2017. While this is but the first of several central bank meetings this week - the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and the Swiss National Bank are also slated to meet - the gathering of Janet Yellen's bunch is likely the most important.
The fu…
While We Wait...
While we wait on this week's big events, which include the FOMC announcement and Janet Yellen press conference Wednesday afternoon, the election results in the Netherlands, meetings of the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and the Swiss National Bank on Thursday, and the Brits triggerin…
The Next Act In The Play...
Good Monday morning and welcome back. To be sure, this week's meeting of Janet Yellen and her merry band of central bankers will be the focal point for the markets. In case you've been sleeping under a rock for the past month, note that the markets are expecting the Fed to raise rates on …
Happy Birthday!
Don't look now fans, but the current secular bull market in stocks turns 8 years old today. Yep, that's right; 8 years ago, today, Jamie Dimon stepped to the microphone on the White House lawn and reminded everyone that his bank not only wasn't at risk of collapse, but was actually profit…
Today's Focus: Yellen, Tepper, and Jobs
There are three items of note on this fine Wednesday morning. First, let's remember that the FOMC is meeting next week. And while the market now expects Yellen & Co. to raise the Fed Funds rate target by 0.25%, traders don't tend to make big commitments in front of important events.
If It's Obvious, It's Obviously...
By now, everybody knows the bull argument. In short, stocks are discounting better days ahead for the economy and earnings, less regulation, a "fantastic" stimulus package, and of course, "massive" tax reform. But as I've opined a time or two, the key here is that these expectations must …
Exploring The Bear Case
By now, just about everybody on the planet knows the key tenets of the bull case. In short, our heroes in horns contend that stocks are discounting better days ahead for the economy, and in turn, earnings, less regulation, a "phenomenal" tax plan, and an economic stimulus package sprinkle…
Let's Be Clear, The Table is Set...
Good Monday morning and welcome back. Now that all the Oscar hoopla and all the political commentary is behind us, we can return to our normal lives. So, let's start the week off with a review my key market models and indicators.
The State of the Trend
We …
The Trend Is Your Friend, But...
Good Monday - oops, I mean Tuesday morning and welcome back. Although the drama in D.C. continues to build on several topics and I continue to be asked what my "Trump Contingency Plan" is in case of trouble (short answer: I don't have one - nor do I have "Trump Success Plan" - we manage m…