Daily State of the Markets
Let's Be Clear, The Table is Set...
Good Monday morning and welcome back. Now that all the Oscar hoopla and all the political commentary is behind us, we can return to our normal lives. So, let's start the week off with a review my key market models and indicators.
The State of the Trend
We …
The Trend Is Your Friend, But...
Good Monday - oops, I mean Tuesday morning and welcome back. Although the drama in D.C. continues to build on several topics and I continue to be asked what my "Trump Contingency Plan" is in case of trouble (short answer: I don't have one - nor do I have "Trump Success Plan" - we manage m…
The Real Inflation Problem
Stocks spiked again on Wednesday with the S&P 500, DJIA, NASDAQ Composite, S&P Midcap, and Russell 2000 indices all finishing at new all-time highs. Once again, investors can thank Mr. Trump for the increased value of their brokerage accounts and 401K's as it was the mere mention …
Odd Behavior? Or...
It is a well-known fact that Janet Yellen is an uber-dove when it comes to interest rates. For those not schooled in the world of Fedspeak, the term "dove" means that the central banker in question errs on the side of lower rates and higher economic growth. This is diametrically opposed t…
Green Means Go, Right?
Good Monday morning and welcome back. Apparently all it took was one utterance of the word "phenomenal" by Mr. Trump in order to remind traders that tax reform hasn't been forgotten and that the plan is likely to be pro-business. Since the President used one of his signature adjectives to…
The Bears Tell Us...
One of the big questions at this point in the game is, can stocks really go higher from here? After all, the S&P 500 is up 10% from the pre-election low and the NASDAQ Composite has added 12.6% since November 4th. So, with stocks having run a long way in a short period of time, isn't …
An Old-School Indicator That Bears Watching - Even Today
I recently wrote a position paper entitled The Tactical Dilemma which explored the trials and tribulations that tactical managers have faced since 2011. In the report, I detailed the …
Where I Stand - Clarifying My Position
I've been saying for a while now that from a big-picture perspective, this is not a low-risk environment. Today I thought I would do some "esplainin" on my point of view.
First, let's dispel the idea that my position suggests it is time to take a cautious stance. This is certainly…
Bull Starting To Show Some Wear and Tear
Good Monday morning and welcome back to the land of blinking screens. My guess is that after the big game, the last thing anyone is thinking about is a bunch of market models and indicators. But this is what discipline is all about. So, let's buckle down and run through a review of my fav…
Quick Take: What We're Watching
On one hand, the action since mid-December would seem to suggest that there isn't much going on in the market. On the other hand, there is an awful lot happening these days. So, this morning I thought I'd run through the keys and what we're watching - in executive summary, bullet-point fa…