Daily State of the Markets
All About Deutsche
On this final trading day of the third quarter, the focus has shifted entirely to state of Germany's biggest banks, namely Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank. While the soundness of the European banking system has been an issue on and off since the credit crisis ended in 2009, specific concern…
Why Tactical Isn't Working - Part VI (The Rise of the Machines)
One down, one to go. Important central bank meetings, that is. While we will have to wait a few more hours to hear whether Janet Yellen's merry band of central bankers is going to raise interest rates today, we did learn overnight that the Bank of Japan will now target the level of intere…
Why Tactical Isn't Working - Part V (The Numbers)
With the markets waiting on both the BoJ (Bank of Japan) meeting and Janet Yellen's announcement on Wednesday, let's go ahead and spend our time this morning continuing the discussion on why tactical/technical strategies have not fared well in recent years.
So far, we've establish…
Since It's Still September...
Good Monday morning and welcome back. Before we let the blinking screens take over our lives again, let's step back and start the week with a review of the state of the market and our objective major market indicators/models.
The first step is a review of the price/trend of the ma…
The End of an Era?
So, did we learn anything from the resumption of the market's dance to the downside yesterday? Can the action be blamed on anything specific? Should we be concerned about the reversal of Monday's reversal? Or is this simply the latest edition of computers gone wild, or what I like to call…
No New Message From Brainard
Down 2.4% on Friday. Up 1.5% on Monday. Such is life in the stock market these days when the computers think they've found a theme. Or rather, when the computers think they've found a theme one day and then realize they were wrong the next. Good times.
On Friday, stocks got hit ha…
Why Tactical Strategies Aren't Working Very Well - Part I
With traders waiting to hear what Mario Draghi has to say this morning, I'd like spend a few minutes on the idea that the character of the market has changed rather dramatically during the current bull run.
Cutting to the chase, there can be little argument that a great many tacti…
Are The Bears Finally Ready?
Good Monday - oops, I mean Tuesday morning, and welcome back to the game. As usual let's start the week with a review of the state of the market and our major market indicators/models.
The first step is a review of the price/trend of the market. Here's my current take on the state…
A Game Changer?
There can be little argument that the focal point of the markets recently has been what I call "Fed expectations." In other words, the expectations for when Janet Yellen's bunch of central bankers will pull the trigger on the next rate hike -- and the one after that.
The discussio…