Daily State of the Markets

The Reasons Stocks Are Bottled Up

Depending on when you believe the counting should begin, the S&P 500 has now been moving sideways, in an exceptionally tight range of just 0.7%, for 11-13 days. Analysts tell us that this is the tightest such range since 2013 and the third longest such range in history. The question, …

Crude's Move Becoming Rude Again

It's always something with this market, isn't it? Just about the time you assume that the "earnings recession" is ending and that investors are looking forward to better days, something always seems to crop up that causes the worries to return. Although stocks have been strong in …

Two More Indicators Turn Green

I got a late start this morning so I'll get right to it. On this fine Thursday morning, it looks like global markets are (a) digesting the Fed statement, which appears to have been not quite as hawkish as had been feared, (b) waiting on the BOJ decision, and (c) dealing with another onsla…

Waiting on the Fed

The recent price action in the stock market reminds us that the dog days of summer are upon us. A time when most traders are dealing with family vacations and/or focusing on keeping that little white ball in the short grass. And given that recent joyride to the upside has created a pretty…

A Reason To Favor The Bulls

Although the S&P 500 remains 8.4% higher than the post-BREXIT panic low seen on June 27, there can be little arguing the fact that the rally has stalled out over the last week or so. After blasting 8.2% in just 12 trading session, both the Dow and S&P have moved mostly sideways si…

The Base Level Assumption Should Now Be...

Good morning and welcome back to the game. Since it's Monday, let's start the week with a review of the state of the market and our major market indicators/models. As usual, the first stop is a review of the price/trend of the market. Here's my current take on the state of the tec…

BREXIT is Indeed Hurting UK Economy, But...

Good morning and Happy Friday. Well, BREXIT is back in the headlines again this morning. It will be one month tomorrow since the Brits voted to focus on their freedom and leave the EU. The good news is that after a two-day freakout, the global markets decided to focus on the macro…

It's a New Bull Market

Stocks struggled in the early going yesterday in response, at least partially, to the fact that the IMF announced a reduction in their forecast for global growth in 2017. Apparently the BREXIT vote has caused the group to rethink their outlook. In fact, just one day before the Brexit vote…

Time To Take a Break, But...

After making new highs in five of the last six sessions, many analysts believe that it is time for the bulls to take a break. After all, the S&P 500 has (a) finished green for thirteen of the last sixteen days, (b) moved to new all-time highs, and (c) gained 8.3% in the process. Let's…

Time to Pick a Side?

There are two clear camps regarding the outlook for the stock market at the current time. On one side of the aisle there are the bulls, who contend that the recent break to fresh all-time highs (a) was driven by expectations for an improving economic and earnings picture, (b) accompanied …