State of the Markets

Some Surprisingly Bad Data To Contend With

By: David Moenning

Last week, we highlighted what we deemed to be Some Surprisingly Good Data. We cited the surge in Empire State General Business Conditions Index, the readings from US Home Purchases…

Some Surprisingly Good Data

By: David Moenning

I think we can all agree that the key driver to the stock market game these days is the expectation/hope for the economy to recover. To be sure, this is no ordinary recovery. Because this is definitely not your ordinary, garden variety recession. No, never before in history has th…

Is There Any Upside From Here?

By: David Moenning

With the S&P 500 closing Friday up 35.9% from the March 23 low, the key questions in my mind are simple. First, how high is too high? And is there any upside from here? The reason I ask these question is because it appears there is a ginormous chasm between the stock market's …

Five Lessons For Understanding This Market

By: David Moenning

I ended last week's missive with the words, "So, from my seat, some caution remains warranted." Silly me. What was I thinking? To be honest, I was thinking that the market's recent joyride to the upside, which, as of Friday, has produced gains of 42.8% from the low on the S&P …

Turning The Corner

By: David Moenning

It appears the general theme of the market these days is we have turned the corner in terms of the virus and the self-inflicted damage done to the economy. This is clearly good news. And to be sure, a collective sigh of relief is warranted. In reviewing the slew of economic data t…

Hope Springs Eternal

By: David Moenning

After the fastest decline of 30% off the top in stock market history, which presumably represented the "discounting" of the worst hit to the U.S. economy since, well, ever, stocks have since rebounded sharply. As of Friday's close, the S&P 500 has gained +32.1% since the March 23rd lo…

Moderna Monday

By: David Moenning

I had every intention this morning of having a discussion about the divergence between the messaging the market received last week from the likes of Jay Powell, Dr. Fauci, David Tepper, and Stan Druckenmiller - all of whom expressed sobering outlooks - and, of course, the horrific economi…

Place Your Bets

By: David Moenning

The question of the day - at least in the popular financial press - appears to be, why are stocks rallying with the economy in free fall? Readers of my oftentimes meandering market missive likely already know the answer here. As we've discussed a time or twenty, the stock market is a disc…

Assuming Away The Can And...

By: David Moenning

There is an old joke which pokes fun at economists that I think applies to the current state of the stock market. It goes something like this... An economist, a chemist, and a physicist are stranded on an island with nothing to eat but a can of beans. The chemist s…

The Battle Is On

By: David Moenning

Stocks technically finished lower last week (the S&P 500 fell -1.3%), but in reality, the market has been moving sideways for the past couple weeks or so. Some will call it a consolidation of the big bounce off the bottom. Others say the market is in search of an equilibrium point. An…