State of the Markets

Market Logic Can Be Confusing image

Market Logic Can Be Confusing

By: David Moenning

Investors received a steady flow of really rotten news on many fronts last week. China's economy shrank by -6.8%. JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon said we need to expect a "severe recession" as well as "meaningfully bad" credit card defaults. The IMF changed its 2020 global growth forecast …

What Are We Lookin' At?

By: David Moenning

The S&P 500 enjoyed its biggest bounce in 46 years last week. Which followed the biggest/fastest drop from an all-time high since, well, ever. So, naturally, the question now becomes, where do we go from here? Markets cheered the Fed's sledgehammer response this past week. To …
There Is Good News If You Look Hard Enough image

There Is Good News If You Look Hard Enough

By: David Moenning

The headlines have been awful. The human toll from the virus continues to mount. The economic impact is jaw dropping. And we're told things are going to get worse this week. Although stocks are bouncing in the early going Monday on the hope that the worst will soon be behind us, i…

And We're Back...

By: David Moenning

I received a text last night asking a pretty good question; one that I thought others might be wondering about as well. The text read, "Dave, we knew the news was going to be bad, why does the market suddenly care?" From my perch, the answer is based on the concept of "expectation…

Putting The Rally In Perspective

By: David Moenning

From my seat, it appears that stocks are experiencing a "sigh of relief" rally (aka a dead cat bounce) here. As we've discussed, these rallies tend to be impressive (hence the headlines for last week's big gains) and make everybody "feel better" about the crisis at hand. The bottom line i…

More Questions Than Answers

By: David Moenning

We've talked a lot lately about what I call "The Crash Playbook." In short, this is a guide developed since the mid-1980's on how market crashes/crises tend to play out. The premise for the playbook is, as the saying goes, "history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes." The …

The Message From The Market Action

By: David Moenning

Market analysts love to talk about "the action" that occurs in the markets. Many, including yours truly, believe that the manner in which the market moves - especially after important news - can provide a "message" about the current environment. To be clear, the action definitely does NOT…

My $0.02 On The Bounce

By: David Moenning

Stocks are bouncing higher this morning, so I thought I'd provide a quick, "my $0.02 take" on the action so far. From my seat, stocks appear to be rebounding based on the following... Word that China is going to lift the lock-down in Wuhan for healthy citizens on 4/…

Looking Ahead To Better Days

By: David Moenning

It is my sincere hope that everyone remains healthy, is being diligent with their social distancing, and is surviving the new virtual work world reality. Since my kids are now all adults and I've had a home office since 2001, my days haven't changed much - well, except for the daily marke…

The King is Dead. Long Live the King!

By: David Moenning

Well it's official, we've got a full-fledged crisis on our hands in the financial markets. Historic events now occur on a daily basis. Things I have never seen before in my 33-year career as a portfolio manager are now happening with regularity. Safety plays are no longer safe. The tech-l…